We are in need of Informed People.

As President Richard Nixon's secretary of state, Kissinger considered himself better informed than his boss, and believed that in most situations he could make the best decision on his own. But, if he tried to determine the policy, he would offend or perhaps enrage a notoriously insecure man. So, Kissinger would propose three or four choices of action for each situation, and would present them in such a way that the one he preferred always seemed the best solution compared to the others. Time after time, Nixon fell for the bait, never suspecting that he was moving where Kissinger pushed him.

          During the first general elections in India, an American journalist observed that India means only two things to us - Famines and Nehru. Seeing the present conditions in Delhi and across the country, to at least a fair amount of individuals, India means only two things - Corruption and Anna Hazare. Cyrilnomics right from the beginning has vouched for a strong Lokpal bill, but is always against the tantrums and the dictatorial methodology followed by Team Anna, and fairly a good amount of 'Informed Individuals' are of the same opinion, recent one being, the views given by Arundhati Roy.

          There are presently no deadlocks across the globe that cannot be solved through dialogues - leave alone the issue of Lokpal. Nevertheless this is not an attempt to evaluate Team Anna and its accomplishments because the entire story has not been unravelled so far. How effectively Anna Hazare can endorse his name in the golden pages of history with the so called 'Second freedom struggle' is still undergoing the test of the time. But, the growing restlessness in the society and the blind support given by the 'intellectuals' of the country is throwing up a lot of questions about the knowledge of the individuals on the topic. Cyrilnomics is trying here to analyze what are the ill-effects of the 'Problem of Ignorance', the country is facing today.

          How many of the people volunteering the movement against the corruption know about the constitution and its machinery's in tackling the same? We don't know about the socio-political scenarios in the country! We don't know anything about our neighbours! The electricity department doesn't know that why there was a power-cut! The telephone exchange doesn't know why the phone was out of order for last two weeks! The State transport corporation drivers don't know which all bus stops the route will cover! Net banking official can't figure out, what went wrong with the system! We simply can't understand why we are getting infected by newer versions of contagious diseases! This ignorance  leads us to:

•  Dissonance

          Dissonance is a negative drive state that occurs when an individual holds two or more cognitions and attitudes or attitudes and behaviour which happens to be psychologically inconsistent. In other words, dissonance is an unpleasant state that results from incompatible cognitions. Every now and then the dissonance is generated in the country and the lead role to develope the same is taken up by the media speculations, government interpretations and presently the civil society generalizations.

•  Attributional Errors

         In making attributions people are motivated with two primary needs:

1) Need to form a coherent view of the world.

2) Need to gain control over the environment.

Attributional errors occur mainly because of our selective perception and we always want to keep our esteems intact. The tendency to make internal attributions over external in exploring the behaviour of others- the reason being perceptual salience and our cultural aspirations. Another point of concern as a result is that people develop a tendency to attribute their own behaviour to external causes and that others to the internal factors. Another manifestation of the same is that of the Self-serving bias which is inevitably the tendency to assign an internal locus of causality for our positive outcomes and external locus of causality for our negative outcomes. A small bribe taken by a police constable is highlighted and generalized whereas we deliberately close our eyes towards any of the financial regularities going under our domain.

•  Correspondent Inference

          India is victim of the Correspondent Inference Theory that explains that how we use the information about others behaviour as a basis for inferring that they possess various traits. The very use of irrational stereotyping done against the total cluster of politicians or the blind irrational support to the civil society stems from this very fact. This ignorance will lead us nowhere, rather as depicted in the case of Kissinger, we are seriously misguided by the higher order information processors. Therefore, its high time we need learned, informed and empowered individuals. This can only ensure a higher order discrimination which can come as a result of higher order generalization.     

Why is India Prone to Terror Attacks: A Differential Analysis

Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make hundred brilliant saves, but the only shot that people remember is the one that gets past you.

          With another date 13/7 being crafted into the list of the infamous events in the country, the cyber discussion forums, media speculations, intellectual debates on terrorism and terror strikes in form of bomb blasts have all taken the front seat once again. Terrorism is a value laden, most used, misconstrued concept. Sociologically, it mainly emanates from anomic state of nature; Psychologically, from a narcissistic frame of mind and Economically, from a sense of relative deprivation. The word terrorism was first used in France and popularized in Russia. In the present scenario, it will be highly immature if yet another article is being constructed only to reciprocate the anger, the grief, the hatred etc. against the so called terrorists and the failure of the government in tackling the same. Cyrilnomics is going for a differential analysis that after all what makes India prone to terror attacks, why is the country turning out to be a soft target of terrorism.

•  Independence at a wrong time!

        In November 1891 Rudyard Kipling visited Australia, where a journalist asked him about the 'possibility of self-government in India'. 'Oh no!' he answered: 'They are 4000 years old out there, much too old to learn the business. Law and order is what they want and we are there to give it to them and we give it them straight.' This was a colonial argument in all sense and there are lot of counter arguments like the survival of democracy in India for the last sixty plus years but the very fact that India is still policed under the archaic Police Act of 1861 which was instituted by the British is the basic understanding that throws light onto the fact that still we are under the colonial hangover and we are not able to device our own strategies.

•  We value Breakdown maintenance more than Preventive maintenance!

          In our country it is always easy to detonate a bomb in a metro than in any rural part of India irrespective of the crowd assembled in the location. Lets think over it. The moment an outsider comes into the vicinity, the extra-eye which the villagers have always reserved for finding out the events happening in the 'neighbours house' gets activated and this is strongest vigilance network which gives added security to the villages and towns. Here again there is no shortage for counter arguments, but the fact remains the system inbuilt in our local towns and villages is that of a preventive approach whereas in our metros and other big cities we start taking action once the event has occurred. In other words, even in the case of the recent blast we are tracing the age old 'suspect to crime' route.

•  Charismatic leaders are not always capable leaders!

          Right from the beginning of freedom struggle and upto the present day the author feels that India has seen more of charismatic leaders. There is no guarantee that with charisma comes capability. Gandhiji was one great individual who displayed his capability along with his charisma. But, its very difficult to point out other leaders and instances where we have seen his/her capability and not his/her clout of charisma. This has resulted in the lack of political will to do something good for the nation as a whole and not to just satisfy his/her caste, region, religion etc. The outward manifestation of the same can be seen in the present day leaders not caring for the lives of the poor and the needy and they being getting marginalized. A capable leader will always know that his support edifice is built on the trust and moreover lives of individuals.

•  Failure of the via-media approach!

          India always tried to adopt a midway path in its all stands. Let it be the political setup, or the financial  economy or the internal or the external policies. This persistent bomb blasts and terror attacks are an outcome of the lack of clarity in terms of her policies. By the via-media approach India reached nowhere. The political alliances present in the country are no way different. Since there is not much of significant presence of the leftists, ideologically, both the main alliances in the center are on the same boat. Hence, its not a big surprise, when they do the things which they are best at- Mud slinging.

•  Generation Gap-A Political outcome!

          We live in a timeframe where one year difference means a lot in the mental makeup of individuals. As a result even in psychological testings, we have moved from the longitudinal to the crossectional approach. Volumes are written on the concept of generation gap. But, the author here likes to take a different view. Generation gap is something which is sponsored and promoted by the state. Though an average Indian doesn't know what is the market rate of commodities he require for his day to day survival, or doesn't know who stays in his neighbourhood, or even does not feel a need to stand against atrocities against his brother, or does not feel a need even to stand up for the National Anthem, he is very much aware of his rights esp. Art14, Art15, Art 19 and not to forget Art 21 in its all aspects, i.e these are the only things we are generally aware of - our rights. The generation of 1990s is more aware of their rights when compared with the generation of the 1980s. Similarly, every decade can be well accounted by this understanding. The awareness about our rights and the attitude of questioning; the argumentative Indian has given rise to a feeling of discomfort against our previous generation which we generally describe as Generation gap. The point is that it takes its own time. USA is in the present pedestal because they had started the run and the rise for their rights much ahead of us.

           To conclude, the effort has always been to become a super power in as much as less time. But, the economic rat race, should never be at the cost of the lives of its citizens. The problem with the rat race is that how fast you run, how fast you reach your destination, you still remain a rat. What is the use of a developed economy where your citizens are not guaranteed of their lives. How can a country become a developed nation when every other day there is a fear of a bomb blast. The solution to the menace should be always on the basis of bounded rationality. Our policy makers should understand there is no best way approach. The basic problems need to be addressed at first, we require a systemic reform. Still, if our law makers think that there is a best way approach, then it will be to form a National government with immediate effect, take up the necessary amendments and come out with strict policy measures. But till we don't have the political will and capable leaders to do so, it will all sound Utopian and we will keep on seeing ourselves as average goalkeepers with average save percentages. 

A Tribute to Mr.Tendulkar

"An idea that is developed and put into action is more important than an idea that exists only as an idea".

          In the presently relevant monsoon parlance, last month experienced a lull with respect to the News and Media industry. Though Team Anna had the lion share of headline possession but articles in the print and the electronic media were twisted and forged with vested political interests and so called civil society aspirations. Maybe after the Osama episode, hardly anything occurred even in the international arena, leaving behind nothing to rationally think and to effectively write about. Though Cyrilnomics is not about individualistic or rather molecular approach, the cosmic law of exceptions cannot be done away with.

          There is no denying the fact that more than seventy percent of the people seeing the title will be thinking that its yet another article on the 'Little Master', but the same can be at best concluded as an outward manifestation of 'surrogate advertisement'. The subject matter is Prof. Suresh Tendulkar. A champion Indian economist and the former chief of National Statistical Commission. He was the member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) under Mr. Rangarajan and went on to become the chairman in 2008 when the latter moved to Rajya Sabha. He also served as member of the Reserve Bank of India’s central board of directors. Prof. Tendulkar was known for his extensive work on "Credit and Privatisation policies" and "Indian development issues and policies", including liberalisation and globalisation. He was also a part-time member of the National Statistical Commission (2000-01), the first "Disinvestment Commission" (1996-99), and the Fifth "Central Pay Commission" (1994-97). But, the work in which he made a mark of himself was his work on Poverty estimates.

          The Planning Commission constituted an expert group in Dec 2005 under the chairmanship of Prof. Tendulkar to review the methodology for estimation of poverty. While acknowledging the multidimensional nature of poverty, the expert group recommended moving away from anchoring poverty lines to the calorie-intake norm to adopting MRP based estimates of consumption expenditure as the basis for future poverty lines and MRP equivalent of the urban poverty line basket(PLB) corresponding to 25.7% urban headcount ratio as the new reference PLB for rural areas. On the basis of above methodology, the all-India rural headcount poverty ratio for 2004-05 was estimated at 41.8%, urban at 25.7% and all-India at 37.2%. Thus, the revised poverty lines are accepted by the Planning commission. The study by Tendulkar committee has aided in bringing some clarity to the poverty estimation which otherwise was always under the cloud of suspicion.

          The Harvard educated intellectual was one individual who could directly bail out the lives of millions who were doubtful in the eyes of government with respect to their status of being APL or BPL. Perhaps he would be the Tendulkar who millions of them remember in their prayers indirectly. Perhaps he would be the Tendulkar who should have occupied the front page of the print media but was restricted to the last page. Perhaps, he was the Tendulkar who has done something good for the masses. In a time frame when India's GDP growth is slowing down, inflation is heading up, current account deficit is still wide and FII's are turning away & the gripping issues are Annas and Babas, are we missing genuine intellectuals who were always working behind the curtains and were really effective in putting their ideas into action. The remedy will be that our economic stand points should undergo an Instrumental conditioning!!!

End of bin Ladenism: Can India do a Similar Operation Against the Other Osamatic?

          "A troublesome Crow seated herself on the back of a Sheep. The Sheep, much against his will, carried her backward and forward for a long time, and at last said, "If you had treated a dog in this way, you would have had your deserts from his sharp teeth. "To this the Crow replied, " I despise the weak, and yield to the strong. I know whom I may bully, and whom I must flatter; and thus I hope to prolong my life to a good old age".

          The month started on a very high note with news flowing all around, of the success of Operation Neptune Spear, carried out by a team of US Navy SEAL, creating ripples, sense of relief, respect, revenge, satisfaction, surprise, suspicion all around the globe. Launched from Afghanistan, the raid took place in Abbottabad Pakistan. This is perhaps the biggest hunt for a so called terrorists in the near past. Osama being found in Pakistan unwinds again some questions about the involvement in instigating as well as covering up of terrorists activities from their ground. OBL stood out not just because of his height but because of his serious conservative demeanour. According to a Taiwan man, Jimmy Wu, who says the al Qaeda leader, was a student in his judo classes in Saudi Arabia. He remebered an occasion when his wife came into the center and most of the students weren't bothered, some smiled, but Osama went to him and said, 'this is the center, and no woman should be here and registered his strong dissapproval. This was perhaps one of the earliest manifestations of his own Osamatic (a dangerous mix of lunatic and fanatic instincts) attitude.

But, there are certain mis-understandings regarding OBL, 

• The CIA created Osama bin Laden: Common among conspiracy theorists is the notion bin Laden was a CIA creation and that the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, were blow back from an agency operation gone awry. In fact, during the Soviet war in Afghanistan during the 1980s, the CIA had no dealings with ‘Afghan Arabs’ such as bin Laden and had few direct dealings with any of the Afghan mujaheddin. Instead, all U.S. aid to Afghanistan was funneled through Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency.
• Bin Laden attacked US because of the freedom enjoyed by Americans: This is what former President George W. Bush projected nine days after Sept. 11. In an address to the US Congress, Bush said: “They hate our freedoms, our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.”Yet, in all the tens of thousands of words uttered by bin Laden, he was strangely silent about American freedoms and values. He didn’t seem to care very much about the beliefs of the ‘crusaders.’His focus was invariably on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
•  Al-Qaeda ideology has nothing to do with Islam: Bush was quite firm that al-Qaeda represented a perversion of Islam, but members of al-Qaeda firmly believe that their struggle has everything to do with the defense of what they consider true Islam. And bin Laden found ammunition in the Koran to give his war some Islamic legitimacy, often invoking the ‘Sword’ verses of the holy book, which can be interpreted as urging attacks on those who won’t submit and convert to Islam.
•  Ayman al-Zawahiri, not bin Laden, the real brains of al-Qaeda: The conventional view is that Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor and al-Qaeda’s longtime second in command, has been bin Laden’s ‘brain.’ But in making the most important strategic shift in al-Qaeda’s history identifying the United States as its key enemy, rather than Middle Eastern regimes bin Laden brushed aside Zawahiri’s obsessive focus on overthrowing the Egyptian government.
• Bin Laden’s death symbolically important but irrelevant to war on terror: Many commentators have asserted in the past week that the death of bin Laden won’t make much difference to the wider jihadist movement that he helped spawn. There is some truth to that, but balanced against this are the facts that al-Qaeda was bin Laden’s creation and he was the ultimate author of the 9/11 attacks.When new recruits joined al-Qaeda, they pledged a personal oath of religious allegiance to bin Laden, rather than to the organization.Similarly, when affiliated jihadist groups have attached themselves to al-Qaeda central, as al-Qaeda in Iraq did in 2004, their leaders pledge their fealty to bin Laden personally.Bin Laden is one of the few men in recent decades who truly changed the history of the world. With him gone from the scene, there is no one of his stature and charisma to become not only the leader and strategic guide of al-Qaeda, but to inspire the group’s affiliates across the Middle East and North Africa and the wider jihadi movement around the globe.

          But, the point of concern is Pakistan, which has been confronted with a deeply unsettling question. Could the self-appointed custodians of the national interest themselves be the greatest threat to national security? Maybe they didn’t know that OBL was there in the country. Maybe they’re so daft they didn’t really take this whole business of pursuing Al Qaeda seriously. Maybe they just didn’t think it was their problem. It’s too frightening to make sense of. The world’s most-wanted terrorist. A man who triggered the longest war in American history. The terrorist mastermind the world’s only superpower has moved heaven and earth to track down. A decade of hunting. Hundreds of billions of dollars spent. The blood of countless Americans and others spilled. And when he was finally found, he was found wrapped in the bosom of the Pakistani security establishment.The establishment has flirted with irrationality in the past. Now it appears to have perfected it. If it can be safe haven for OBL then you just need the 'common' sense to figure out the presence of Dawood & Hafiz Saeed in the Pakistani soil.Can India launch a similar operation. Do we have leaders like Obama who value the lives of their citizens the most.

          His words says it all, "And yet, we know that the worst images are those that were unseen to the world. The empty seat at the dinner table. Children who were forced to grow up without their mother or their father. Parents who would never know the feeling of their child’s embrace. Three thousand citizens taken from us, leaving a gaping hole in our hearts. As a country we will never tolerate our security being threatened nor stand idly by when our people have been killed. We will be relentless in defence of our citizens and our friends and allies. We will be true to the values that make us who we are. Finally, let me say to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11, that we have never forgotten your loss, nor wavered in our commitment to see that we do whatever it takes to prevent another attacks on our shores.”

          India has lost more lives in terrorists activities than US. The country is the worst sufferer of such inhuman activities, yet we waste time on dossiers and cricket matches. If US knows the Pakistan inside out, we know better. Ultimately, the author feels its not the Navy SEAL or the modified UH-60 BlackHawks which won the game for them but its the political will to do so, the value it sees in the lives of its citizens. There is only one fact the leaders of our country should understand that, Pakistan despise India, and yields to US. Pakistan  knows whom she should bully, and whom she must flatter; and thus she hopes to prolong her life to a good old age.

Jan Lokpal : A Hawkeye Prediction

          "Rulers see through spies,

           as cows through smell,

           Brahmans through scriptures and

           rest of the people through their normal eyes."

          The words of Kautilya, the Indian philosopher of the third century BC finds more meaning now, if not then. It is highly difficult to pass a day without confronting the golden word 'Jan Lokpal'. This may be mainly attributed to the so called hype created by the 'Peoples Revolution' or the controversies surrounding the 'Bhushans' or the unstoppable VIP inflow into Tihar. But many a time we feel that the fire ignited by Anna Hazare is glowing down in its intensity

         

         There is no denying the fact that the Lokpal bill is the need of the hour; owing to our inadequate systems to handle the magnitude of the corruption observed in the recent past. The CBI has powers but is not independent (of its political masters). The CVC is independent, but it does not have sufficient powers or resources. Besides, the CVC is just an advisory body and has no powers to register a criminal case. The revolution by Anna Hazare was a great crowd puller, amply supported by the media . The story of how the government conceded all the demands of Hazare within four days of his fast must make anyone wonder whether the idiom of public protest and the character of democracy in India have transformed abruptly ( Not to forget Irom Sharmila, who has been on fast for the past 10 years demanding the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act). But, can the Lokpal alone stop the corruption?

         

          The demand for a Jan Lokpal bill will only tackle one part of the problem of corruption. It is designed to create an effective institution to check the supply of corruption and to create disincentives for corruption. The bigger part essentially requires the policy change of the corporate margins. But, the Jan Lokpal bill is highly mis-understood by the  public.The Lokpal has no judicial powers. It has the powers of investigation and initiating prosecution. The judgement will be always given by ordinary courts. Also, it will never create a superpower which will not be accountable to anybody, because the orders will be reviewable in the higher judiciary, the Lokpal is mandated to function with full transparency and finally members of the Lokpal are accountable to the Supreme court and can be removed by a five member bench.

          But. the bone of contention is not the movement or the bill. At present, its all about the smooth flow of the working of the Drafting committee. Soon after the first meeting of the JDC, a CD containing some very unsavoury bits of conversation between Mr. Mulayam Singh and Mr. Shanti Bhushan blew up in the public's face. This was followed by other accusations of undervaluation of a property for payment of stamp duty and the allotment of unusually large prime plots worth several crores in Noida. 

          A section of the society now claims that its highly outrageous that a committee meant to draft a bill demanding "unimpeachable integrity" and demonstrable resolve to fight corruption should itself consists of persons who are yet to clear  themselves of the charges levelled at them damaging their professional integrity.There is lot of substance in this argument and also the author cannot digest the idea that the duo, knew each and every punctuation mark of the bill, and therefore their presence is an absolute must. How long does it take for an experienced and knowledgeable lawyer to grip the provisions of the bill. Is the bill that complex that a Fali Nariman or Soli Sorabji may find it difficult to comprehend.

         

         A viper crushed beneath your foot but left alive, will rear up and bite you with a double dose of venom. An enemy of the anti-corruption movement (be it anybody) that is left around is like a half dead viper that you nurse back to health. Time makes the venom grow stronger.The author's appeal to Anna Hazare is that the process has started , lets complete it without giving time to the vipers in and around the society to attack back with double vengeance. The normal eye-view says that its neither the 'pro-Bhushans' nor the 'anti-Bhushans' argument that is important; the need of the hour is that of a strong Jan Lokpal bill or else the Hawk eye predicts that, the means is going to become the end yet another time!!

Time for India to move to the First Quadrant : BRICS @ Hainan

          Harold Lasky on the basis of the political attributes divides the society into four. If, the X axis shows a scale of pessimism to optimism, Y axis shows a scale of satisfaction to dissatisfaction, then the whole of the population gets divided into four;

1. PROGRESSIVE - Satisfied & Optimistic

2. CONSERVATIVE - Satisfied but Pessimistic

3. RADICALS - Optimistic but highly Dissatisfied

4. REACTIONARY - Pessimistic & highly Dissatisfied.

          The Quadrant classification which reminds the author of the school day Trigonometry classes (All Silver Tea Cups!!) can very well be extrapolated to the Indian foreign stand in the recent past. Many a times we have seen India taking all the stands except the progressive one. This notion was once again stamped in the recent BRICS summit on the southern island of Hainan in China.

          Inevitably, the BRICS ought to have discussed their relationships with the rest of the world. But, such summits' which eyes for sectoral cooperation; is by any margin a big surprise for the common man for the simple reason that these so called emerging powers are also the toppers in the world external debt charts and by no doubt has the US & Eurozone as the major consumers of the emerging market exports. And. here comes the economic dilemma; What will happen if the 'Protectionism' gains the momentum; in the event the BRICS may feel the heat in the western market.

          The hanging up of Doha issues certainly underlines the very notion that the developing nations are not being taken seriously till now in the World Economic Order. In this context the BRICS meet ought to have determined, how as a lobby, it could manoeuvre its members and the rest of the developing world into a multi-lateral trading system and a smoother financial order.

          In this situation, India had the golden opportunity to support ways of regulating the financial setup. The country could always boast of its success in staving off the worst effects of the Global financial meltdown and for the western countries now facing the hangover of the debt crisis. If India could have taken up the teacher's role then BRICS was a perfect classroom for the western economies. But ironically, the author feels that India once again felt the 'starting trouble'; thwarting the golden opportunity of moving up the spiral to the first quadrant, i.e, from the conservative, radical and reactionary stand to a Progressive one!!

Can History be a Yardstick in Politics: Power Equation in Kerala

         "History does nothing, it possesses no wealth, it wages no battles. It is man, real, living man who does all that, who possesses and fights; 'history' is not as it were, a person apart, using man as a means to achieve its own aims; history is nothing but the activity of man pursuing his aims".......Marx, The Holy Family, Chapter 6 (1846). There is no better option than to quote Marx while initiating an analysis on Kerala politics.The result would have been predictable if the assembly elections in Kerala were held couple of months before. But, it would be a political blunder of the highest order, supporting the history of the Kerala politics or so called trend which has been generous enough to give alternate chances to both the coalition fronts one after another, which is perhaps clearly understood by UDF if not, the ruling front.

          State is witnessing a fierce political battle this time. The Congress is pulling out their finest strategies to rejuvenate the momentum which they had during the local body elections and previously in the Lok Sabha elections. While the moves of LDF reflects their intent to rewrite the history by getting back into power. In 2001 assembly elections, the UDF secured one of the finest victories by winning 99 seats in the 140 member assembly house. In 2006, the coin got flipped, it was the LDF's turn to return back to power by exactly the same margin. The trend was proved to be correct once again, when in 2009 Lok Sabha elections the UDF secured 16 out of 20 seats. This was further supported by the results of the Panchayat-Municipal elections in 2010 October in which UDF pulled out 60% of the total seats.

          UDF is moving ahead with the strategy of "Development" and has also listed out an action scheme for faster industrialization and employment generation (a joke in itself!!). But, the front is once again caught up in the old  dogma of seat sharing. With several LDF fractions shifting their allegiance and the unrest within the party, every alternate seat has become a point of discussion in the internal meetings. the bargain being mainly anchored by Kerala Congress (Mani). The 'staunch support' of ideologically bigger but numerically smaller allies like Janadhipatya Samrakshana Samiti (JSS), Janatha Dal (Democratic) again add on to the saga. But, there is no doubt that over the years the front has gained enough maturity in tackling the issue of seat sharing, there are much bigger concerns for UDF now. Sentencing the former UDF minister R. Balakrishna Pillai for one year rigorous imprisonment for corruption, has effectively pulled the mass support out of the UDF camp. Problems don't end there for UDF; the Kozhikode ice cream parlour scandal adds on to the adversities of the UDF campaign.

          The BJP with the intent to fight yet another time, in and around half a dozen seats will make it act as a perfect spoiler this time and may cause damages for both the left and the right (only if we don't see any last minute defection!!). But, the author sees a good chance of BJP pulling out more than 8% of votes this time.

          LDF started off again with its usual strategy of V. S Achuthanandan's candidature issue and is believing on repeating the same magic of previous assembly elections. The LDF will project the doubling of procurement price of paddy and revitalizing the PDS. Also the budgetary promise to deposit Rs 10,000/- in the name of every child born to BPL families and half that amount for APL children as education scholarship has been one of the innovative steps the state has seen in the recent past. But, the decision of not extending the retirement age of govt. employees , absence of collective responsibility and the repetition of the candidature issue of V.S may backfire the whole move.

          But the fact remains that the oppressed are allowed once every few years to decide which particular representatives of the oppressing class are to represent and repress them. LDF is still not able to maintain a good relationship with powerful denominations of Christaian and Muslim community. The whole election result may depend on the chemistry both the coalition has synthesized with the lion share of the Kerala population- the Middle class!! While Malampuzha , Puthupally and Pala will see one-sided elections, all eyes will be focused on Vengara, Kottayam legislative battles.

          While Marx was a perpetual antagonist of history and trends, his followers in Kerala at least join ideologically with Marx this time, if not others, that they will reverse the trend. As sun will shine in the morning of 13nth April, a lot of permutations and combinations carried out will also depend upon how many out of the 2.28 core voters will go and cast their votes ( Not to forget the inconveniences caused by the unscientific and irrational re-design of the constituencies).