MULLAPERIYAR UNBOUND

When individuals blunder, it is unfortunate and then families go down. When rulers fail, it is a National tragedy

There is a haunting story by John Steinback called ‘The Pearl’, in which Kino, a poor Mexican fisherman, discovers to his terrible cost the destructive power of natural wealth. The situation of state of Kerala is very much similar; though it’s not about once a century gem but ‘water’. The whole script recorded is 125yrs old. Oct 29nth, 1889, the water sharing agreement was signed between the Travancore kingdom and Madras presidency. The agreement was forced upon the state of Travancore by the British regime is very much clear from the records of the king. It was a 999years lease agreement. The treaty lost its validity once the British left the country and further a new agreement was cropped in by the Achutha Menon ministry in 1970. This agreement was supposed to be renewed in 2000, but thanks to the political vibrations; has turned out to be a major bone of contention between the brethren states of Tamilnadu and Kerala. The point of concern is essentially the 1200ft long and 155ft high Mullaperiyar dam; which is the highest of the one of the oldest gravity dam situated 5000ft above sea level. The dam which gets its name by the combination of Mulla and Periyar has a poignant history in terms of its construction; where almost 442 people lost their lives.

The commercial aspects can never be ignored. Tamilnadu gains around Rs.1200cr from the waters of Mullaperiyar whereas it pays only a modicum of Rs.30lakhs  in return. Water is a universal asset, transferred from generations to generations and Cyrilnomics never feels that a river or a water body, if flowing through a region’s (state) territory gives automatic authority of its control to the that region. But, an agreement on the distribution of the same is highly recommended to facilitate smooth relationship between the partners. There are two powerhouses running in Tamilnadu, utilizing Mullaperiyar water (3^rd one is under construction). The grape yards of Tamilnadu decide the commercial rates of Indian grapes which inevitably relates its existence to the waters of Mullaperiyar. Districts of Ramanathapuram, Theni, Dindigal, Madurai and Sivaganga find its political unification mainly because of the word Mullaperiyar. Only 2% of the catchment area of Periyar (114sq.km out of 5398 sq.km) belongs to Tamilnadu. A deeper postmortem will show that in 115yrs, Tamilnadu has got 6960tmc water (yearly avg. of 60tmc). The cost of the same, at present rate may come upto 7000cr.Rs 600cr/yr electricity is generated. Taking the statistics further, on a cumulative basis, from 1960, Kerala should have been given Rs 37,000cr (including that of power generated), while Tamilnadu is paying only Rs 10lakhs a year. There is perhaps a danger of excessive optimism giving way to unthinking pessimism.

The analysis of the present day condition of the dam will show us that whether such a hue and cry is justifiable or is yet another political drama. Too much of extreme steps are not desired, as it will readily hamper any progress made towards the construction of the new dam. Strong evidences are the need of the hour which can emphatically show the leakages of the dam and its vulnerability towards any potential disasters. The Supreme Court expert panel report and the study report of IIT Roorkee should act as the authentic documents (than merely getting carried away by animated movies or planetary positions) and since this has a greater overlap with state of Kerala’s concern, it is highly recommended to the state govt. to expedite the process through legal channels than through political gimmicks. The dam inspection was carried out by the apex court appointed technical panel on March 9nth this year. Inner water studies of the dam were carried out by Remote Operated Vehicle (ROV). Considerable numbers of fissures were observed during the study. The bigger ones observed at a depth of 110ft were fissures(read holes) with dia of 6-9inches. Unfortunately, how far the fissures have moved inwards could not be found out. The systemic restrictions will facilitate for a study of only up to 15 to 16m from water level (119.7 ft being the avg. water capacity). If such are the cracks observed in the said level, then the condition of the very base of the dam is easily imaginable, which clearly underlines Kerala’s plea for immediate reduction in water level and construction of new dam.  

What may happen if the dam collapses? If the Mullaperiyar and the Idukki dam breaks, Kerala will get divided into two, says Central Soil & Material Research Station Team. The Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan for Mullaperiyar dam hazard estimates that if something happens to the dam, then the debris may reach the Idukki dam, which is 36km downline. Idukki dam, with a capacity of 70tmc, is 79% full already. If the debris alongwith the 15tmc water reaches the dam, it may not show the resilience. If the burgeoning water gushes form Mullaperiyar to Idukki, then it may cause death of around 70,000 people (of which 30,000 will be Tamilians). If Idukki dam also breaks, it may initiate a chain reaction of destruction of 11 dams in line, which tags Mullaperiyar with the name ‘Water Bomb’. This water, if flows down can cause serious damages to Ernakulam, Kottayam districts. Further , downflow may uproot the Neriyamangalam bridge, which connects Idukki and Ernakulam and can cause flood in Alwaye and not to forget Cochin airport. Mullaperiyar dam is facing frequent tremors. If it faces a quake of above 6 in Richter scale, the dam may collapse is the ultimatum given by IIT Roorkee. Experts suggest that a dam has to be de-commissioned after its life (60yrs), but Mullaperiyar has completed 115yrs, which adds on to the conundrum.

Any unfortunate incident can be equally damaging for Tamilnadu. Nearly, 5 districts will face scarcity of water. Both, the alternate forms of govt. reaching the power in Kerala have never denied water to Tamilnadu, shows the history. Kerala, which is dependent on Tamilnadu for commodities including staple foods, fruits and vegetables, can never even in dreams think of denying water to Tamilnadu. As stated by the government of Kerala, the state is ready to give the prescribed amount of water, but what it demands is the safety of its people. Because of the frequent tremors, and the dilapidated condition of the dam, immediate scaling down of water level and construction of the new dam is highly desired. At present, the water level is 136ft, i.e; 21.4cr.cu.m.The present water discharge capacity of the system works out to 49.25lakh cu.m. At least, it will take a minimum of 10 days to scale down the water from 136ft to 120ft (provided the discharge is done 24x7, with the assumption of no influx of water). This shows that how assiduously we need to work for a new dam in no time. All the technical and authentic commissions finally narrow down to the same prescription. A new dam, which need to be constructed 366m downline, with dimensions of 370.1m length and 53.22m height and will incur a cost of Rs663cr. A new dam can effectively give more water than prescribed limit with renewed agreements on international standards. Hence, this is not an issue between two states, it is just a victim of yet another Goebbelsian propaganda , it is just a case of mis-understanding or at best a successful miasmic political playground of regional parties of both the states. Till the new dam gets materialized, lets hope that the British technology along with the prayers of the people belonging to the vulnerable districts will hold the Mullaperyar dam together. When ordinary human being err, it is sad, but when leaders do, it haunts us for generations. At least lets not work for any political mileage here. Please!       

Flipside of the Judicial Delay

A lot has been done to enlighten the public to motivate the actors for improvization in the Indian judicial setup & processes and thereby to bring about structural reforms, higher performance standards and capacity building. But, certain ground realities exist which is creating a miasma of the Indian judiciary. 'Justice for Poor' stands out as a distant dream in the 21st century owing to the increased expenses in the judicial processes, a chunk of it being absorbed as 'lawyers' fees'. The chain of expenses stretch out from the lower tiers to the apex court and consequently the expenses incured, curtails the motivation of the poor. This confines justice to only certain sections of the society. After all, neither the pedantic planning commission nor the venal goverment has kept any margin for the same out of the Rs.26 & Rs.32 alloted for the daily expenses for the said section of the society.

Secondly, the lose of budding and talented younger advocates is an area to ponder upon. Lion share of the Law Graduates, prefer the green pastures of the corporate world. This conundrum observed, is the most threatening 'situation' the judiciary will face in the coming years. The said policy reforms and structural changes should focus on this losing of talent which can mainly be achieved by cleansing the elements of nepotism intruded into the system.

Finally, the lack of awareness of the common man beams out to be the major issue. Media deliberations and public discussion forums can act as eye-openers, but still higher awareness should be generated, especially, at the grass-root level; which is inevitably the need of the hour where more than 70% of people recognize approaching court as a social taboo than as fighting for their rights. Unfortunately, the Indian judiciary in its functioning underlines the precarious notion of Ronald Regan who once said,"When you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat". The more we take the responsibility for our past and present, the more we are able to create the future we seek.

**Excerpts of the article appeared in The Hindu (28th Oct,2011) in letters to the editor column

Contemporary Relevance of Gandhian Doctrines

Generations to come, it may well be, scarce believe that such a man as this one ever in flesh and blood walked upon this Earth.

          During the tumultuous period of the first half of the previous century, where power mainly relied on violence and its sustenance, Gandhiji had an old fashioned respect for his own calling. He knew what it was he was doing. Another Gandhijayanti has passed with not much of attention being given, but the ever increasing relevance of Mahatma and his doctrines both inside and outside the country has forced the author to go for a re-visit and contemporary analysis of the Gandhian doctrines. Gandhi never believed in the establishment of any "ism" in his name. Yet, Gandhian core values of what Kripalani has termed the "Gandhian Way" stands out as a distinct ideology of non-violence and peace. Lech Walesa, leader of the Solidarity movement and later President of Poland, observed during his visit to New Delhi that when we fought with violence we failed, but when we fought with non-violence we succeeded.

          The unfettered commitment towards the religious scriptures had  paved way for Gandhiji in developing his universal concepts of Satyagraha and non-violence. Gandhiji was much prophetical in declaring that unity in diversity is not a theoretical proposition but a practical reality. Respect for each nation; be it USA or Libya, China or Pakistan, respect for each language; displayed by the diversities within the country, respect for each political system - all these are the lessons of Indian democracy. Cooperation  and coexistence are what the world needs today. He suggested that all human activities in the administrative domain should be need-centric and not greed-centric. This has direct link to Sustainable development - the need of the hour.Gandhi laid out an important foundational principle in defining the recently much talked about concept of Governance, where he emphasized on the sovereignty of the people over the sovereignty of the state by establishing Swaraj; which was totally people centric and participation centric.The existing governance setup is so complex that a common man will always require a support system just to approach the government or administration. In his framework of governance, the village will be managed by a panchayat which will be a living political entity. These panchayats will be voluntarily associated by an ever widening circle of such village republics. It is not an apex sustained by the bottom, but an oceanic circle where the center will be the individual always ready to perish for the circle of villages and so on. In this dynamic process, the individual must move from consuming  to conserving, spending to saving and depleting resources to sustaining them.

          In the world scenario as mentioned Gandhism or the modern Gandhigiri can be the real problem solver. Conflicts between the nations can be resolved by Gandhian methods; new institutional arrangements or by altering behaviour of the concerned states, initiation of Confidence Building Measures, use of Track-II diplomacy, etc which can open new vistas for durable peace. Trusteeship system envisaged by Gandhiji wherein the rich could contribute for the well being of deprieved sections of humanity.This can also mitigate the demand of a New International Economic Order. Further, Gandhism believes in unilateral disarmament. Change in the perception of terrorism, i.e, seeing it as a socio-psychological problem and changing the attributional errors of the fundamentalist and transforming such individuals is inevitable.

          Having discussed the international relevance it will be highly unfair if Cyrilnomics ignores the recent upsurge of Gandhian values and methodology in India during the movement, India against corruption or better known as Anna Hazare movement. If we apply Gandhian conception of democracy and freedom, all criticisms against Anna's movements would seem most unfair and unjust. After all, by democracy Gandhi never meant once every five years phenomenon; he regarded it as a continuous process of people's active involvement in all spheres of decision-making, though it necessarily won't give a freehand for making a mockery of Gandhian methodology of Satyagraha and extending it to Fast(s)-unto death in terms of hours or days at best. Corruption being a inimical menace; what was seen was the cathartic release of pent-up feelings of the people of both the emerging India and the protesting Bharat. Time will say the degree of Gandhian nature of Hazare movement, as some of late deviations are already being observed. Any visible change to eradicate corruption in the country will be a tribute to Gandhiji whether it is Anna Hazare movement or the ruling establishment's timely response to the cause. But, the fact of the matter is that Gandhism portrays the real Zeitgeist.

   

Only He Takes It, Who Gives It!

"I do regard death sentence as contrary to Ahimsa. Only he takes it, who gives it"

          After the unprecedented performance of Team Anna, New Delhi was back to 'normalcy' with yet another bomb blast in the High Court premises and an Earthquake on the same day. The rejection of the mercy petition by the President and subsequent heinous act has once again pushed up the issue of capital punishment to the forefront. Cyrilnomics, this time is interested in analyzing, that why India is still under the clutches of the medieval values.

There are broadly three types of punishment;

1. Retributive theory of Punishment- This finds itself rooted in the medieval values and figuratively being expressed as an 'Eye for an Eye' and finds its higher order manifestation mainly in the middle-east countries.
2. Theory of Deterrence- This is all about creating a psychic fear in the mind of an offender
3. Reformative theory of Punishment - Unlike the above two versions, this gives the criminal, time for self-introspection and the isolation provided will make him understand about the unworthy deal he carried out.

          Section 302 of IPC prescribes death penalty as an 'alternative punishment' for murder. Supreme court in Jagmohan Singh V sof U.P, 1973 case held that if the entire procedure for criminal trial under the CrPC for arriving at a sentence of death is valid, then the imposition of death sentence in accordance with the procedure established by law cannot be said as unconstitutional. Further awarding death penalty is not violative of Art. 21 (Rt. to Life) because Art. 21 recognizes the right of the state to deprive a person of his life or personal liberty in accordance with the procedure established by law. Again Art. 72 & Art. 161 also refer to death sentence where the executive may pardon or commute the same. But the wider interpretations of the apex court brings out the doctrine of the rarest of rare cases, when the murder is committed in an extremely brutal and dastardly manner, without any sense of remorse exhibited by the accused. But, does these provisions ultimately give the power to take away a human life?

          Death penalty is inhuman and a cruel form of punishment, which takes us back in timeline towards Retributive system. One of the major grounds on which it is supported is that it acts as a deterrence in society. But, quest for empirical evidence suggests something drastically different, for eg. In 1945 capital punishment was abolished in Travancore under the leadership of C.P Ramaswamy. Later, it joined Indian union in 1950 and IPC was adopted in the territory. Interestingly, 967 murders were reported in Travancore during 1950-55 viz. only 962 cases were reported during 1945-50. Moreover, its mostly the lower strata of the society, the bottom of the pyramid; who cannot effectively defend themselves in a court of law are the ones who get punished by the same, suggesting its class discriminative dimension. Further, if the innocence of a person is established after his hanging, no amount of justice can be done to him.

This inhuman practice yet again throws light into the Cognitive biases the country carries, which are namely:

• Anchoring: The common tendency to rely too heavily or anchor on one value or approach while making decisions. The middle path psyche of the countries policies is putting on greater gravity on the inertia and is reluctant to take up any procedural reforms.
• Bandwagon Effect: The tendency to do or believe in rules and values because many other countries do so or believe the same, is killing our aspiration for making a individual mark on the map of the world.
• Texas Sharp shooter fallacy: Many a times, it is observed that our policies lack the humanitarian considerations and have a negative effect on the people, creating dissonance in their everyday life. This fallacy is all about adjusting the outcomes after the data is collected. An external manifestation of the same can be observed even in case of gamblers fallacy.

          It shows the level of the the escalation of commitment and politicization of issues like that of Capital punishment, which has taken us to a level from where there is no exit and day by day we are getting drowned in the vicious cycle accentuated by the lack of political will and desire to be a society where the lives of its citizens gets primacy. The isolation itself is the biggest punishment and the verdict after more than two decades of detention is more barbaric than perhaps the death sentence itself. Therefore, its high time for reforms; at least we won't have unnecessary 'situations' created by different states on this particular issue or it will be a great relief if we can plug the possibility of any further bomblasts on its account because as Gandhiji said, only he has the right to take it, who actually gives it!

We are in need of Informed People.

As President Richard Nixon's secretary of state, Kissinger considered himself better informed than his boss, and believed that in most situations he could make the best decision on his own. But, if he tried to determine the policy, he would offend or perhaps enrage a notoriously insecure man. So, Kissinger would propose three or four choices of action for each situation, and would present them in such a way that the one he preferred always seemed the best solution compared to the others. Time after time, Nixon fell for the bait, never suspecting that he was moving where Kissinger pushed him.

          During the first general elections in India, an American journalist observed that India means only two things to us - Famines and Nehru. Seeing the present conditions in Delhi and across the country, to at least a fair amount of individuals, India means only two things - Corruption and Anna Hazare. Cyrilnomics right from the beginning has vouched for a strong Lokpal bill, but is always against the tantrums and the dictatorial methodology followed by Team Anna, and fairly a good amount of 'Informed Individuals' are of the same opinion, recent one being, the views given by Arundhati Roy.

          There are presently no deadlocks across the globe that cannot be solved through dialogues - leave alone the issue of Lokpal. Nevertheless this is not an attempt to evaluate Team Anna and its accomplishments because the entire story has not been unravelled so far. How effectively Anna Hazare can endorse his name in the golden pages of history with the so called 'Second freedom struggle' is still undergoing the test of the time. But, the growing restlessness in the society and the blind support given by the 'intellectuals' of the country is throwing up a lot of questions about the knowledge of the individuals on the topic. Cyrilnomics is trying here to analyze what are the ill-effects of the 'Problem of Ignorance', the country is facing today.

          How many of the people volunteering the movement against the corruption know about the constitution and its machinery's in tackling the same? We don't know about the socio-political scenarios in the country! We don't know anything about our neighbours! The electricity department doesn't know that why there was a power-cut! The telephone exchange doesn't know why the phone was out of order for last two weeks! The State transport corporation drivers don't know which all bus stops the route will cover! Net banking official can't figure out, what went wrong with the system! We simply can't understand why we are getting infected by newer versions of contagious diseases! This ignorance  leads us to:

•  Dissonance

          Dissonance is a negative drive state that occurs when an individual holds two or more cognitions and attitudes or attitudes and behaviour which happens to be psychologically inconsistent. In other words, dissonance is an unpleasant state that results from incompatible cognitions. Every now and then the dissonance is generated in the country and the lead role to develope the same is taken up by the media speculations, government interpretations and presently the civil society generalizations.

•  Attributional Errors

         In making attributions people are motivated with two primary needs:

1) Need to form a coherent view of the world.

2) Need to gain control over the environment.

Attributional errors occur mainly because of our selective perception and we always want to keep our esteems intact. The tendency to make internal attributions over external in exploring the behaviour of others- the reason being perceptual salience and our cultural aspirations. Another point of concern as a result is that people develop a tendency to attribute their own behaviour to external causes and that others to the internal factors. Another manifestation of the same is that of the Self-serving bias which is inevitably the tendency to assign an internal locus of causality for our positive outcomes and external locus of causality for our negative outcomes. A small bribe taken by a police constable is highlighted and generalized whereas we deliberately close our eyes towards any of the financial regularities going under our domain.

•  Correspondent Inference

          India is victim of the Correspondent Inference Theory that explains that how we use the information about others behaviour as a basis for inferring that they possess various traits. The very use of irrational stereotyping done against the total cluster of politicians or the blind irrational support to the civil society stems from this very fact. This ignorance will lead us nowhere, rather as depicted in the case of Kissinger, we are seriously misguided by the higher order information processors. Therefore, its high time we need learned, informed and empowered individuals. This can only ensure a higher order discrimination which can come as a result of higher order generalization.     

Why is India Prone to Terror Attacks: A Differential Analysis

Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make hundred brilliant saves, but the only shot that people remember is the one that gets past you.

          With another date 13/7 being crafted into the list of the infamous events in the country, the cyber discussion forums, media speculations, intellectual debates on terrorism and terror strikes in form of bomb blasts have all taken the front seat once again. Terrorism is a value laden, most used, misconstrued concept. Sociologically, it mainly emanates from anomic state of nature; Psychologically, from a narcissistic frame of mind and Economically, from a sense of relative deprivation. The word terrorism was first used in France and popularized in Russia. In the present scenario, it will be highly immature if yet another article is being constructed only to reciprocate the anger, the grief, the hatred etc. against the so called terrorists and the failure of the government in tackling the same. Cyrilnomics is going for a differential analysis that after all what makes India prone to terror attacks, why is the country turning out to be a soft target of terrorism.

•  Independence at a wrong time!

        In November 1891 Rudyard Kipling visited Australia, where a journalist asked him about the 'possibility of self-government in India'. 'Oh no!' he answered: 'They are 4000 years old out there, much too old to learn the business. Law and order is what they want and we are there to give it to them and we give it them straight.' This was a colonial argument in all sense and there are lot of counter arguments like the survival of democracy in India for the last sixty plus years but the very fact that India is still policed under the archaic Police Act of 1861 which was instituted by the British is the basic understanding that throws light onto the fact that still we are under the colonial hangover and we are not able to device our own strategies.

•  We value Breakdown maintenance more than Preventive maintenance!

          In our country it is always easy to detonate a bomb in a metro than in any rural part of India irrespective of the crowd assembled in the location. Lets think over it. The moment an outsider comes into the vicinity, the extra-eye which the villagers have always reserved for finding out the events happening in the 'neighbours house' gets activated and this is strongest vigilance network which gives added security to the villages and towns. Here again there is no shortage for counter arguments, but the fact remains the system inbuilt in our local towns and villages is that of a preventive approach whereas in our metros and other big cities we start taking action once the event has occurred. In other words, even in the case of the recent blast we are tracing the age old 'suspect to crime' route.

•  Charismatic leaders are not always capable leaders!

          Right from the beginning of freedom struggle and upto the present day the author feels that India has seen more of charismatic leaders. There is no guarantee that with charisma comes capability. Gandhiji was one great individual who displayed his capability along with his charisma. But, its very difficult to point out other leaders and instances where we have seen his/her capability and not his/her clout of charisma. This has resulted in the lack of political will to do something good for the nation as a whole and not to just satisfy his/her caste, region, religion etc. The outward manifestation of the same can be seen in the present day leaders not caring for the lives of the poor and the needy and they being getting marginalized. A capable leader will always know that his support edifice is built on the trust and moreover lives of individuals.

•  Failure of the via-media approach!

          India always tried to adopt a midway path in its all stands. Let it be the political setup, or the financial  economy or the internal or the external policies. This persistent bomb blasts and terror attacks are an outcome of the lack of clarity in terms of her policies. By the via-media approach India reached nowhere. The political alliances present in the country are no way different. Since there is not much of significant presence of the leftists, ideologically, both the main alliances in the center are on the same boat. Hence, its not a big surprise, when they do the things which they are best at- Mud slinging.

•  Generation Gap-A Political outcome!

          We live in a timeframe where one year difference means a lot in the mental makeup of individuals. As a result even in psychological testings, we have moved from the longitudinal to the crossectional approach. Volumes are written on the concept of generation gap. But, the author here likes to take a different view. Generation gap is something which is sponsored and promoted by the state. Though an average Indian doesn't know what is the market rate of commodities he require for his day to day survival, or doesn't know who stays in his neighbourhood, or even does not feel a need to stand against atrocities against his brother, or does not feel a need even to stand up for the National Anthem, he is very much aware of his rights esp. Art14, Art15, Art 19 and not to forget Art 21 in its all aspects, i.e these are the only things we are generally aware of - our rights. The generation of 1990s is more aware of their rights when compared with the generation of the 1980s. Similarly, every decade can be well accounted by this understanding. The awareness about our rights and the attitude of questioning; the argumentative Indian has given rise to a feeling of discomfort against our previous generation which we generally describe as Generation gap. The point is that it takes its own time. USA is in the present pedestal because they had started the run and the rise for their rights much ahead of us.

           To conclude, the effort has always been to become a super power in as much as less time. But, the economic rat race, should never be at the cost of the lives of its citizens. The problem with the rat race is that how fast you run, how fast you reach your destination, you still remain a rat. What is the use of a developed economy where your citizens are not guaranteed of their lives. How can a country become a developed nation when every other day there is a fear of a bomb blast. The solution to the menace should be always on the basis of bounded rationality. Our policy makers should understand there is no best way approach. The basic problems need to be addressed at first, we require a systemic reform. Still, if our law makers think that there is a best way approach, then it will be to form a National government with immediate effect, take up the necessary amendments and come out with strict policy measures. But till we don't have the political will and capable leaders to do so, it will all sound Utopian and we will keep on seeing ourselves as average goalkeepers with average save percentages. 

A Tribute to Mr.Tendulkar

"An idea that is developed and put into action is more important than an idea that exists only as an idea".

          In the presently relevant monsoon parlance, last month experienced a lull with respect to the News and Media industry. Though Team Anna had the lion share of headline possession but articles in the print and the electronic media were twisted and forged with vested political interests and so called civil society aspirations. Maybe after the Osama episode, hardly anything occurred even in the international arena, leaving behind nothing to rationally think and to effectively write about. Though Cyrilnomics is not about individualistic or rather molecular approach, the cosmic law of exceptions cannot be done away with.

          There is no denying the fact that more than seventy percent of the people seeing the title will be thinking that its yet another article on the 'Little Master', but the same can be at best concluded as an outward manifestation of 'surrogate advertisement'. The subject matter is Prof. Suresh Tendulkar. A champion Indian economist and the former chief of National Statistical Commission. He was the member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) under Mr. Rangarajan and went on to become the chairman in 2008 when the latter moved to Rajya Sabha. He also served as member of the Reserve Bank of India’s central board of directors. Prof. Tendulkar was known for his extensive work on "Credit and Privatisation policies" and "Indian development issues and policies", including liberalisation and globalisation. He was also a part-time member of the National Statistical Commission (2000-01), the first "Disinvestment Commission" (1996-99), and the Fifth "Central Pay Commission" (1994-97). But, the work in which he made a mark of himself was his work on Poverty estimates.

          The Planning Commission constituted an expert group in Dec 2005 under the chairmanship of Prof. Tendulkar to review the methodology for estimation of poverty. While acknowledging the multidimensional nature of poverty, the expert group recommended moving away from anchoring poverty lines to the calorie-intake norm to adopting MRP based estimates of consumption expenditure as the basis for future poverty lines and MRP equivalent of the urban poverty line basket(PLB) corresponding to 25.7% urban headcount ratio as the new reference PLB for rural areas. On the basis of above methodology, the all-India rural headcount poverty ratio for 2004-05 was estimated at 41.8%, urban at 25.7% and all-India at 37.2%. Thus, the revised poverty lines are accepted by the Planning commission. The study by Tendulkar committee has aided in bringing some clarity to the poverty estimation which otherwise was always under the cloud of suspicion.

          The Harvard educated intellectual was one individual who could directly bail out the lives of millions who were doubtful in the eyes of government with respect to their status of being APL or BPL. Perhaps he would be the Tendulkar who millions of them remember in their prayers indirectly. Perhaps he would be the Tendulkar who should have occupied the front page of the print media but was restricted to the last page. Perhaps, he was the Tendulkar who has done something good for the masses. In a time frame when India's GDP growth is slowing down, inflation is heading up, current account deficit is still wide and FII's are turning away & the gripping issues are Annas and Babas, are we missing genuine intellectuals who were always working behind the curtains and were really effective in putting their ideas into action. The remedy will be that our economic stand points should undergo an Instrumental conditioning!!!

End of bin Ladenism: Can India do a Similar Operation Against the Other Osamatic?

          "A troublesome Crow seated herself on the back of a Sheep. The Sheep, much against his will, carried her backward and forward for a long time, and at last said, "If you had treated a dog in this way, you would have had your deserts from his sharp teeth. "To this the Crow replied, " I despise the weak, and yield to the strong. I know whom I may bully, and whom I must flatter; and thus I hope to prolong my life to a good old age".

          The month started on a very high note with news flowing all around, of the success of Operation Neptune Spear, carried out by a team of US Navy SEAL, creating ripples, sense of relief, respect, revenge, satisfaction, surprise, suspicion all around the globe. Launched from Afghanistan, the raid took place in Abbottabad Pakistan. This is perhaps the biggest hunt for a so called terrorists in the near past. Osama being found in Pakistan unwinds again some questions about the involvement in instigating as well as covering up of terrorists activities from their ground. OBL stood out not just because of his height but because of his serious conservative demeanour. According to a Taiwan man, Jimmy Wu, who says the al Qaeda leader, was a student in his judo classes in Saudi Arabia. He remebered an occasion when his wife came into the center and most of the students weren't bothered, some smiled, but Osama went to him and said, 'this is the center, and no woman should be here and registered his strong dissapproval. This was perhaps one of the earliest manifestations of his own Osamatic (a dangerous mix of lunatic and fanatic instincts) attitude.

But, there are certain mis-understandings regarding OBL, 

• The CIA created Osama bin Laden: Common among conspiracy theorists is the notion bin Laden was a CIA creation and that the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, were blow back from an agency operation gone awry. In fact, during the Soviet war in Afghanistan during the 1980s, the CIA had no dealings with ‘Afghan Arabs’ such as bin Laden and had few direct dealings with any of the Afghan mujaheddin. Instead, all U.S. aid to Afghanistan was funneled through Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency.
• Bin Laden attacked US because of the freedom enjoyed by Americans: This is what former President George W. Bush projected nine days after Sept. 11. In an address to the US Congress, Bush said: “They hate our freedoms, our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.”Yet, in all the tens of thousands of words uttered by bin Laden, he was strangely silent about American freedoms and values. He didn’t seem to care very much about the beliefs of the ‘crusaders.’His focus was invariably on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
•  Al-Qaeda ideology has nothing to do with Islam: Bush was quite firm that al-Qaeda represented a perversion of Islam, but members of al-Qaeda firmly believe that their struggle has everything to do with the defense of what they consider true Islam. And bin Laden found ammunition in the Koran to give his war some Islamic legitimacy, often invoking the ‘Sword’ verses of the holy book, which can be interpreted as urging attacks on those who won’t submit and convert to Islam.
•  Ayman al-Zawahiri, not bin Laden, the real brains of al-Qaeda: The conventional view is that Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor and al-Qaeda’s longtime second in command, has been bin Laden’s ‘brain.’ But in making the most important strategic shift in al-Qaeda’s history identifying the United States as its key enemy, rather than Middle Eastern regimes bin Laden brushed aside Zawahiri’s obsessive focus on overthrowing the Egyptian government.
• Bin Laden’s death symbolically important but irrelevant to war on terror: Many commentators have asserted in the past week that the death of bin Laden won’t make much difference to the wider jihadist movement that he helped spawn. There is some truth to that, but balanced against this are the facts that al-Qaeda was bin Laden’s creation and he was the ultimate author of the 9/11 attacks.When new recruits joined al-Qaeda, they pledged a personal oath of religious allegiance to bin Laden, rather than to the organization.Similarly, when affiliated jihadist groups have attached themselves to al-Qaeda central, as al-Qaeda in Iraq did in 2004, their leaders pledge their fealty to bin Laden personally.Bin Laden is one of the few men in recent decades who truly changed the history of the world. With him gone from the scene, there is no one of his stature and charisma to become not only the leader and strategic guide of al-Qaeda, but to inspire the group’s affiliates across the Middle East and North Africa and the wider jihadi movement around the globe.

          But, the point of concern is Pakistan, which has been confronted with a deeply unsettling question. Could the self-appointed custodians of the national interest themselves be the greatest threat to national security? Maybe they didn’t know that OBL was there in the country. Maybe they’re so daft they didn’t really take this whole business of pursuing Al Qaeda seriously. Maybe they just didn’t think it was their problem. It’s too frightening to make sense of. The world’s most-wanted terrorist. A man who triggered the longest war in American history. The terrorist mastermind the world’s only superpower has moved heaven and earth to track down. A decade of hunting. Hundreds of billions of dollars spent. The blood of countless Americans and others spilled. And when he was finally found, he was found wrapped in the bosom of the Pakistani security establishment.The establishment has flirted with irrationality in the past. Now it appears to have perfected it. If it can be safe haven for OBL then you just need the 'common' sense to figure out the presence of Dawood & Hafiz Saeed in the Pakistani soil.Can India launch a similar operation. Do we have leaders like Obama who value the lives of their citizens the most.

          His words says it all, "And yet, we know that the worst images are those that were unseen to the world. The empty seat at the dinner table. Children who were forced to grow up without their mother or their father. Parents who would never know the feeling of their child’s embrace. Three thousand citizens taken from us, leaving a gaping hole in our hearts. As a country we will never tolerate our security being threatened nor stand idly by when our people have been killed. We will be relentless in defence of our citizens and our friends and allies. We will be true to the values that make us who we are. Finally, let me say to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11, that we have never forgotten your loss, nor wavered in our commitment to see that we do whatever it takes to prevent another attacks on our shores.”

          India has lost more lives in terrorists activities than US. The country is the worst sufferer of such inhuman activities, yet we waste time on dossiers and cricket matches. If US knows the Pakistan inside out, we know better. Ultimately, the author feels its not the Navy SEAL or the modified UH-60 BlackHawks which won the game for them but its the political will to do so, the value it sees in the lives of its citizens. There is only one fact the leaders of our country should understand that, Pakistan despise India, and yields to US. Pakistan  knows whom she should bully, and whom she must flatter; and thus she hopes to prolong her life to a good old age.

Jan Lokpal : A Hawkeye Prediction

          "Rulers see through spies,

           as cows through smell,

           Brahmans through scriptures and

           rest of the people through their normal eyes."

          The words of Kautilya, the Indian philosopher of the third century BC finds more meaning now, if not then. It is highly difficult to pass a day without confronting the golden word 'Jan Lokpal'. This may be mainly attributed to the so called hype created by the 'Peoples Revolution' or the controversies surrounding the 'Bhushans' or the unstoppable VIP inflow into Tihar. But many a time we feel that the fire ignited by Anna Hazare is glowing down in its intensity

         

         There is no denying the fact that the Lokpal bill is the need of the hour; owing to our inadequate systems to handle the magnitude of the corruption observed in the recent past. The CBI has powers but is not independent (of its political masters). The CVC is independent, but it does not have sufficient powers or resources. Besides, the CVC is just an advisory body and has no powers to register a criminal case. The revolution by Anna Hazare was a great crowd puller, amply supported by the media . The story of how the government conceded all the demands of Hazare within four days of his fast must make anyone wonder whether the idiom of public protest and the character of democracy in India have transformed abruptly ( Not to forget Irom Sharmila, who has been on fast for the past 10 years demanding the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act). But, can the Lokpal alone stop the corruption?

         

          The demand for a Jan Lokpal bill will only tackle one part of the problem of corruption. It is designed to create an effective institution to check the supply of corruption and to create disincentives for corruption. The bigger part essentially requires the policy change of the corporate margins. But, the Jan Lokpal bill is highly mis-understood by the  public.The Lokpal has no judicial powers. It has the powers of investigation and initiating prosecution. The judgement will be always given by ordinary courts. Also, it will never create a superpower which will not be accountable to anybody, because the orders will be reviewable in the higher judiciary, the Lokpal is mandated to function with full transparency and finally members of the Lokpal are accountable to the Supreme court and can be removed by a five member bench.

          But. the bone of contention is not the movement or the bill. At present, its all about the smooth flow of the working of the Drafting committee. Soon after the first meeting of the JDC, a CD containing some very unsavoury bits of conversation between Mr. Mulayam Singh and Mr. Shanti Bhushan blew up in the public's face. This was followed by other accusations of undervaluation of a property for payment of stamp duty and the allotment of unusually large prime plots worth several crores in Noida. 

          A section of the society now claims that its highly outrageous that a committee meant to draft a bill demanding "unimpeachable integrity" and demonstrable resolve to fight corruption should itself consists of persons who are yet to clear  themselves of the charges levelled at them damaging their professional integrity.There is lot of substance in this argument and also the author cannot digest the idea that the duo, knew each and every punctuation mark of the bill, and therefore their presence is an absolute must. How long does it take for an experienced and knowledgeable lawyer to grip the provisions of the bill. Is the bill that complex that a Fali Nariman or Soli Sorabji may find it difficult to comprehend.

         

         A viper crushed beneath your foot but left alive, will rear up and bite you with a double dose of venom. An enemy of the anti-corruption movement (be it anybody) that is left around is like a half dead viper that you nurse back to health. Time makes the venom grow stronger.The author's appeal to Anna Hazare is that the process has started , lets complete it without giving time to the vipers in and around the society to attack back with double vengeance. The normal eye-view says that its neither the 'pro-Bhushans' nor the 'anti-Bhushans' argument that is important; the need of the hour is that of a strong Jan Lokpal bill or else the Hawk eye predicts that, the means is going to become the end yet another time!!

Time for India to move to the First Quadrant : BRICS @ Hainan

          Harold Lasky on the basis of the political attributes divides the society into four. If, the X axis shows a scale of pessimism to optimism, Y axis shows a scale of satisfaction to dissatisfaction, then the whole of the population gets divided into four;

1. PROGRESSIVE - Satisfied & Optimistic

2. CONSERVATIVE - Satisfied but Pessimistic

3. RADICALS - Optimistic but highly Dissatisfied

4. REACTIONARY - Pessimistic & highly Dissatisfied.

          The Quadrant classification which reminds the author of the school day Trigonometry classes (All Silver Tea Cups!!) can very well be extrapolated to the Indian foreign stand in the recent past. Many a times we have seen India taking all the stands except the progressive one. This notion was once again stamped in the recent BRICS summit on the southern island of Hainan in China.

          Inevitably, the BRICS ought to have discussed their relationships with the rest of the world. But, such summits' which eyes for sectoral cooperation; is by any margin a big surprise for the common man for the simple reason that these so called emerging powers are also the toppers in the world external debt charts and by no doubt has the US & Eurozone as the major consumers of the emerging market exports. And. here comes the economic dilemma; What will happen if the 'Protectionism' gains the momentum; in the event the BRICS may feel the heat in the western market.

          The hanging up of Doha issues certainly underlines the very notion that the developing nations are not being taken seriously till now in the World Economic Order. In this context the BRICS meet ought to have determined, how as a lobby, it could manoeuvre its members and the rest of the developing world into a multi-lateral trading system and a smoother financial order.

          In this situation, India had the golden opportunity to support ways of regulating the financial setup. The country could always boast of its success in staving off the worst effects of the Global financial meltdown and for the western countries now facing the hangover of the debt crisis. If India could have taken up the teacher's role then BRICS was a perfect classroom for the western economies. But ironically, the author feels that India once again felt the 'starting trouble'; thwarting the golden opportunity of moving up the spiral to the first quadrant, i.e, from the conservative, radical and reactionary stand to a Progressive one!!

Can History be a Yardstick in Politics: Power Equation in Kerala

         "History does nothing, it possesses no wealth, it wages no battles. It is man, real, living man who does all that, who possesses and fights; 'history' is not as it were, a person apart, using man as a means to achieve its own aims; history is nothing but the activity of man pursuing his aims".......Marx, The Holy Family, Chapter 6 (1846). There is no better option than to quote Marx while initiating an analysis on Kerala politics.The result would have been predictable if the assembly elections in Kerala were held couple of months before. But, it would be a political blunder of the highest order, supporting the history of the Kerala politics or so called trend which has been generous enough to give alternate chances to both the coalition fronts one after another, which is perhaps clearly understood by UDF if not, the ruling front.

          State is witnessing a fierce political battle this time. The Congress is pulling out their finest strategies to rejuvenate the momentum which they had during the local body elections and previously in the Lok Sabha elections. While the moves of LDF reflects their intent to rewrite the history by getting back into power. In 2001 assembly elections, the UDF secured one of the finest victories by winning 99 seats in the 140 member assembly house. In 2006, the coin got flipped, it was the LDF's turn to return back to power by exactly the same margin. The trend was proved to be correct once again, when in 2009 Lok Sabha elections the UDF secured 16 out of 20 seats. This was further supported by the results of the Panchayat-Municipal elections in 2010 October in which UDF pulled out 60% of the total seats.

          UDF is moving ahead with the strategy of "Development" and has also listed out an action scheme for faster industrialization and employment generation (a joke in itself!!). But, the front is once again caught up in the old  dogma of seat sharing. With several LDF fractions shifting their allegiance and the unrest within the party, every alternate seat has become a point of discussion in the internal meetings. the bargain being mainly anchored by Kerala Congress (Mani). The 'staunch support' of ideologically bigger but numerically smaller allies like Janadhipatya Samrakshana Samiti (JSS), Janatha Dal (Democratic) again add on to the saga. But, there is no doubt that over the years the front has gained enough maturity in tackling the issue of seat sharing, there are much bigger concerns for UDF now. Sentencing the former UDF minister R. Balakrishna Pillai for one year rigorous imprisonment for corruption, has effectively pulled the mass support out of the UDF camp. Problems don't end there for UDF; the Kozhikode ice cream parlour scandal adds on to the adversities of the UDF campaign.

          The BJP with the intent to fight yet another time, in and around half a dozen seats will make it act as a perfect spoiler this time and may cause damages for both the left and the right (only if we don't see any last minute defection!!). But, the author sees a good chance of BJP pulling out more than 8% of votes this time.

          LDF started off again with its usual strategy of V. S Achuthanandan's candidature issue and is believing on repeating the same magic of previous assembly elections. The LDF will project the doubling of procurement price of paddy and revitalizing the PDS. Also the budgetary promise to deposit Rs 10,000/- in the name of every child born to BPL families and half that amount for APL children as education scholarship has been one of the innovative steps the state has seen in the recent past. But, the decision of not extending the retirement age of govt. employees , absence of collective responsibility and the repetition of the candidature issue of V.S may backfire the whole move.

          But the fact remains that the oppressed are allowed once every few years to decide which particular representatives of the oppressing class are to represent and repress them. LDF is still not able to maintain a good relationship with powerful denominations of Christaian and Muslim community. The whole election result may depend on the chemistry both the coalition has synthesized with the lion share of the Kerala population- the Middle class!! While Malampuzha , Puthupally and Pala will see one-sided elections, all eyes will be focused on Vengara, Kottayam legislative battles.

          While Marx was a perpetual antagonist of history and trends, his followers in Kerala at least join ideologically with Marx this time, if not others, that they will reverse the trend. As sun will shine in the morning of 13nth April, a lot of permutations and combinations carried out will also depend upon how many out of the 2.28 core voters will go and cast their votes ( Not to forget the inconveniences caused by the unscientific and irrational re-design of the constituencies). 

Cricket - A New Dimension of India Inc.

     It has been past 28years since the dome of horizon of cricket fever has arisen in our country. There is no denying the fact that cricket was a respectable sport well before the event of 1983 world cup. The world cup marked the institutionalization of cricket into a religion. TV sets got priority in the consumers list very soon and it hardly took any time across the nation, to get into every household. 

   

    The scenario strengthened time and again when over the years we came very closer to the worldcup. But, it was denied since 1983, the reasons being plenty; from terrific spells of Imran Khan to unexpected batting from Aravinda Desilva and from there the Australian army being the cynosure which took up the monopoly, when rest of the teams were demoted to meagre spectators. It took years to negotiate the Australian hegemony and finally we have the cup (whether original or duplicate doesn't matter!!).

     Viewing the big screen in a crowded Metropolitan Mall Gurgaon was really an electrifying  experience, thanks to Karthik, Loki and Ram . In fact, it was much superior than watching the same in any isolated living room.The Indian start was 'shaky' when we lost the top guns but the gut feeling of the author that it being 'Dhoni-day' proved out to be perfect ( Not to neglect, its the Dhoni's fav. team Srilanka on the other side!!). Dhoni has a rare combination of Intelligence & Luck in equal proprtions. The best point is that the whole script was written by the youg turks and not the senior veterans; a good sign for future cricket.

    

     The celebrations after the victory were simply awesome. People getting on top of trucks dancing, Indian flags all over, guys and girls dancing and enjoying the success; first in the lifetime of many.It was absolutely true that history lags behind the history makers.I have never seen India united to this extent, across the nation. Strambolian atmosphere across the country.

     Team India has shown that this is the change which we wish to see in ourselves.There are a lot of things which we can learn from this victory; a forward looking strategy, coherent ideology, a vision of future society. If we are able to stick to these, then there is no doubt that the entire universe will conspire to sail us through to our destinations, gradually reducing the gap between India and Bharat (Did somebody say Inclusive Growth!!).......Lets take it forward!!!