Can History be a Yardstick in Politics: Power Equation in Kerala

         "History does nothing, it possesses no wealth, it wages no battles. It is man, real, living man who does all that, who possesses and fights; 'history' is not as it were, a person apart, using man as a means to achieve its own aims; history is nothing but the activity of man pursuing his aims".......Marx, The Holy Family, Chapter 6 (1846). There is no better option than to quote Marx while initiating an analysis on Kerala politics.The result would have been predictable if the assembly elections in Kerala were held couple of months before. But, it would be a political blunder of the highest order, supporting the history of the Kerala politics or so called trend which has been generous enough to give alternate chances to both the coalition fronts one after another, which is perhaps clearly understood by UDF if not, the ruling front.

          State is witnessing a fierce political battle this time. The Congress is pulling out their finest strategies to rejuvenate the momentum which they had during the local body elections and previously in the Lok Sabha elections. While the moves of LDF reflects their intent to rewrite the history by getting back into power. In 2001 assembly elections, the UDF secured one of the finest victories by winning 99 seats in the 140 member assembly house. In 2006, the coin got flipped, it was the LDF's turn to return back to power by exactly the same margin. The trend was proved to be correct once again, when in 2009 Lok Sabha elections the UDF secured 16 out of 20 seats. This was further supported by the results of the Panchayat-Municipal elections in 2010 October in which UDF pulled out 60% of the total seats.

          UDF is moving ahead with the strategy of "Development" and has also listed out an action scheme for faster industrialization and employment generation (a joke in itself!!). But, the front is once again caught up in the old  dogma of seat sharing. With several LDF fractions shifting their allegiance and the unrest within the party, every alternate seat has become a point of discussion in the internal meetings. the bargain being mainly anchored by Kerala Congress (Mani). The 'staunch support' of ideologically bigger but numerically smaller allies like Janadhipatya Samrakshana Samiti (JSS), Janatha Dal (Democratic) again add on to the saga. But, there is no doubt that over the years the front has gained enough maturity in tackling the issue of seat sharing, there are much bigger concerns for UDF now. Sentencing the former UDF minister R. Balakrishna Pillai for one year rigorous imprisonment for corruption, has effectively pulled the mass support out of the UDF camp. Problems don't end there for UDF; the Kozhikode ice cream parlour scandal adds on to the adversities of the UDF campaign.

          The BJP with the intent to fight yet another time, in and around half a dozen seats will make it act as a perfect spoiler this time and may cause damages for both the left and the right (only if we don't see any last minute defection!!). But, the author sees a good chance of BJP pulling out more than 8% of votes this time.

          LDF started off again with its usual strategy of V. S Achuthanandan's candidature issue and is believing on repeating the same magic of previous assembly elections. The LDF will project the doubling of procurement price of paddy and revitalizing the PDS. Also the budgetary promise to deposit Rs 10,000/- in the name of every child born to BPL families and half that amount for APL children as education scholarship has been one of the innovative steps the state has seen in the recent past. But, the decision of not extending the retirement age of govt. employees , absence of collective responsibility and the repetition of the candidature issue of V.S may backfire the whole move.

          But the fact remains that the oppressed are allowed once every few years to decide which particular representatives of the oppressing class are to represent and repress them. LDF is still not able to maintain a good relationship with powerful denominations of Christaian and Muslim community. The whole election result may depend on the chemistry both the coalition has synthesized with the lion share of the Kerala population- the Middle class!! While Malampuzha , Puthupally and Pala will see one-sided elections, all eyes will be focused on Vengara, Kottayam legislative battles.

          While Marx was a perpetual antagonist of history and trends, his followers in Kerala at least join ideologically with Marx this time, if not others, that they will reverse the trend. As sun will shine in the morning of 13nth April, a lot of permutations and combinations carried out will also depend upon how many out of the 2.28 core voters will go and cast their votes ( Not to forget the inconveniences caused by the unscientific and irrational re-design of the constituencies).